If...Then

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The Top 100 onscreen Oscar nominees of all time is the focal point of the book, "And the Winner Really Is."  Let's look at the chart and see what changes could come as a result of this year's Oscars.  There will be no shake-up of the Top 20 apple cart, a la Daniel Day-Lewis, Denzel Washington, and Cate Blanchett have managed to do in the past couple of years.  This year, any changes will be happening in the chart's lower reaches, with one notable exception: if Robert Duvall is nominated for Best Supporting Actor for "The Judge," (possible) it will be his 7th nomination in total and will move him (the nomination alone, I mean) from #36 where he currently is all the way to #24, bumping Dame Judi Dench down a notch.  If Hilary Swank picks up a nom for "The Homesman" (unlikely), it will be her third overall and the two-time winner would move from her current ranking of #65 to #55, bumping Sally Field down a peg.  If Amy Adams picks up notice for "Big Eyes" (unlikely), it would be her 6th nomination and would vault her from #98 at present way up to #62, shoving aside Thelma Ritter.  As Adams would most certainly not win this year, her 0-6 record would put her in a tie with Deborah Kerr, Glenn Close, and Ritter for most-nominated woman without a win.  Two men (Peter O'Toole and Richard Burton, with 8 and 7 nominations respectively) have had more noms with no competitive trophies won.  Certain nominee Julianne Moore currently sits outside the top circle at #145 with 4 nominations.  Her imminent 5th nom this year would put her into the Top 100 at #98, bumping Amy Adams down a notch and moving Clark Gable out of the Top 100 entirely.  If Moore wins (likely), she will not only enter the Top 100, she will do so at a whopping #54, right above Morgan Freeman.  That's a lot of what-if's; what it shows is that this is a year predominantly  of newcomers, with Moore the most likely exception.  And let's not forget Streep; Meryl will further cement her status as legend with her 19th nomination, the same number as Katharine Hepburn and Ingrid Bergman combined.

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